WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 05-07-21 at 6:52 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-07-21 70   67 48   45 76   74 55   50 84   82 64   61
05-06-21 72 73.1 77 51 51.3 50 68   70 48   45 75   76 55   48
05-05-21 79 75.7 78 53 49.8 50 73 73.1 75 52 51.3 49 70   70 47   47
05-04-21 80 77.1 79 65 60.4 59 78 75.7 74 54 49.8 52 75 73.1 75 51 51.3 47
05-03-21 79 74.1 80 67 61.0 67 82 77.1 78 66 60.4 62 80 75.7 76 54 49.8 50
05-02-21 82 81.8 84 65 67.6 62 80 74.1 78 68 61.0 67 84 77.1 78 66 60.4 61
05-01-21 78 77.7 79 56 54.6 55 80 81.8 77 65 67.6 62 82 74.1 83 68 61.0 66
04-30-21 79 74.1 80 54 51.7 55 79 77.7 79 56 54.6 53 81 81.8 74 65 67.6 61
04-29-21 82 80.5 85 61 62.9 65 80 74.1 80 53 51.7 54 79 77.7 79 56 54.6 54
04-28-21 83 83.4 86 61 62.9 62 84 80.5 86 64 62.9 66 78 74.1 82 55 51.7 54
04-27-21 82 81.7 83 59 62.9 62 82 83.4 85 62 62.9 61 85 80.5 85 64 62.9 65
04-26-21 78 77.3 79 55 53.7 53 82 81.7 83 61 62.9 56 83 83.4 85 62 62.9 57
04-25-21 74 73.3 75 50 48.7 47 78 77.3 80 55 53.7 52 82 81.7 83 60 62.9 55
04-24-21 69 72.6 68 51 53.3 52 73 73.3 76 51 48.7 50 78 77.3 78 56 53.7 52
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 8 5 6 9 7 6 7 5 6 7 4 4
% Succ 61.5   38.5 46.2   69.2 58.3   50.0 58.3   41.7 54.5   63.6 36.4   36.4
Ave Error 1.9   3.1 2.5   2.0 2.4   2.9 2.5   3.0 3.0   3.4 2.9   3.4
Net Error 1.1   2.4 0.6   -0.1 1.8   1.8 1.6   -0.3 2.8   2.0 1.7   -1.5
Std Dev 1.7   1.8 1.6   1.9 2.2   2.0 2.2   2.2 2.7   3.4 2.4   2.6



Updated: 05-06-21 at 6:52 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-06-21 51   46 68   69 48   49 75   75 54   48 84   85
05-05-21 52 49.8 55 73 73.1 77 51   46 70   72 48   46 76   73
05-04-21 64 60.4 79 78 75.7 59 53 49.8 74 74 73.1 52 51   75 73   47
05-03-21 67 77.1 64 80 61.0 78 65 60.4 59 79 75.7 77 54 49.8 53 75 73.1 75
05-02-21 65 67.6 63 80 74.1 79 68 77.1 66 83 61.0 78 66 60.4 63 79 75.7 78
05-01-21 57 54.6 57 80 81.8 80 64 67.6 62 82 74.1 83 68 77.1 66 83 61.0 78
04-29-21 63 51.7 62 80 77.7 78 54 54.6 55 79 81.8 78 57 67.6 54 82 74.1 72
04-28-21 63 62.9 61 84 80.5 85 65 51.7 63 79 77.7 80 54 54.6 53 78 81.8 79
04-27-21 62 62.9 60 85 83.4 86 63 62.9 60 85 80.5 85 65 51.7 63 76 77.7 73
04-26-21 56 53.7 54 83 81.7 83 61 62.9 57 84 83.4 84 62 62.9 56 84 80.5 85
04-25-21 50 48.7 47 77 77.3 79 56 53.7 53 82 81.7 82 60 62.9 56 83 83.4 84
04-24-21 52 53.3 54 72 73.3 77 51 48.7 48 78 77.3 79 55 53.7 52 81 81.7 83
04-23-21 53 52.9 48 70 72.6 70 54 53.3 48 74 73.3 77 51 48.7 51 79 77.3 80
04-22-21 43 38.8 39 69 69.2 72 53 52.9 48 71 72.6 67 54 53.3 52 73 73.3 78
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 5 7 4 5 4 7 4 4 3 6 3
% Succ 38.5   38.5 53.8   30.8 41.7   33.3 58.3   33.3 36.4   27.3 54.5   27.3
Ave Error 3.3   5.1 3.2   4.9 3.5   6.2 3.9   5.9 4.7   5.7 4.3   4.1
Net Error 1.0   0.7 2.3   1.7 1.0   -0.2 3.2   0.8 0.3   -2.2 3.0   2.3
Std Dev 3.5   5.4 4.8   5.4 3.9   6.9 6.0   6.8 4.6   4.8 6.1   4.7